世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 29-54.

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人民币实际汇率变动对资源配置效率影响的研究

毛日昇1, 余林徽2, 武岩3   

  1. 1. 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 北京建国门内大街5号 100732;
    2. 浙江大学;
    3. 荷兰瓦格宁根大学
  • 出版日期:2017-04-10 发布日期:2017-05-05
  • 通讯作者: 毛日昇 E-mail:gilbertmao@163.com
  • 作者简介:余林徽,电子信箱:0013204@zju.edu.cn;武岩,电子信箱:yan.wu@wur.nl

The Real Exchange Rate Movements and Misallocation of Manufacturing Industries in China

Mao Risheng1, Yu Linhui2, Wu Yan3   

  • Online:2017-04-10 Published:2017-05-05
  • Contact: 2017-05-05 E-mail:gilbertmao@163.com

摘要: 本文采用工业企业实际产出数据估计企业成本加成率,结合细分制造业实际有效汇率指数,考察了实际汇率变化对行业内部企业成本加成离散度的影响。研究表明:(1)实际汇率变化会对企业成本加成离散度产生显著影响。人民币实际有效汇率升值(贬值)会显著提升(降低)资源配置效率。(2)人民币升值通过出口开放渠道会显著增加持续性企业成本加成离散度,但升值通过进口竞争和进口中间品渠道会显著加快企业进入和退出的比率,从而会显著降低行业的成本加成离散度;实际汇率变动通过改变企业进入退出方式对资源配置效率的影响作用更大。(3)实际汇率变动的影响具有不对称性,人民币贬值相对升值对资源配置效率的影响作用更大。

关键词: 实际汇率, 出口开放, 进口竞争, 进口中间品, 资源配置

Abstract: Based on the physical output data of above-scale firms from Chinese manufacturing industries, we estimated the markup of each firm after controlling for the input price bias via several control functions. In addition, we empirically check the impacts of exchange rate changes on the markup dispersion of firms. Three main results are derived: (i)the appreciation (or depreciation) of real exchange rate will significantly decrease (or increase)the markup dispersion within manufacturing industries. (ii)The real exchange rate changes have impacts on markup dispersion through both intensive and extensive margins.The appreciation of real exchange rate can either increase the markup dispersion of incumbent firms through export channel, or else decrease the dispersion substantially by speeding up the firm exit and entry rate within industries through import channel.(iii)The real exchange rate changes have asymmetric impacts on the markup dispersion of firms-the depreciation of real exchange rate has much greater impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate.

Key words: real exchange rate, export channel, import channel, markup dispersion

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