世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 105-128.

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老龄化如何影响科技创新

姚东旻1, 宁静2, 韦诗言3   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心 北京市海淀区学院南路39号 100081;
    2. 中央财经大学财经研究院;
    3. 威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校 Department of Economics, William H. Sewell Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393
  • 出版日期:2017-04-10 发布日期:2017-05-05
  • 通讯作者: 韦诗言(通讯作者),电子邮箱:bostwei@163sina.com E-mail:bostwei@163sina.com
  • 作者简介:姚东旻,电子邮箱:yaodongminn@163.com

How Does the Population Aging Affect Technology Innovation?

Yao Dongmin1, Ning Jing2, Wei Shiyan 3   

  • Online:2017-04-10 Published:2017-05-05

摘要: 本文通过对已有文献的分析,提出老龄化通过影响人力资本积累来影响科技创新产出的猜想,并基于2003-2012年的中国省际面板数据,采用动态面板模型和系统GMM方法,考察了老龄化对人力资本积累以及科技创新的影响。计量结果表明,老龄化对科技创新水平有显著的负效应,而且老龄化对人力资本积累有显著的负影响,验证了老龄化通过人力资本积累来影响科技创新水平这一猜想。进一步分析不同经济水平下老龄化对创新的异质性影响及对不同类型科技创新的影响差异后发现,相比于经济发展水平低的地方,经济发展水平高的地方老龄化对于创新的影响更加显著;并且,老龄化对不同类型科技创新的影响不同,其对发明专利申请授权和外观设计专利申请授权影响显著。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 科技创新, 人力资本

Abstract: China is now facing a challenge that the innovation output is nibbled by the aging population problem. It's still a mystery for academia how an aging population suppresses people's innovation behavior. Based on literature analysis, this paper discusses a channel through which the aging population problem reduces the output of technology innovation by undermining the human capital accumulation. In addition, this paper uses China's provincial panel data, with dynamic panel model and systematic GMM method, to verify this channel. We find that the aging population rate has a significant negative effect on innovation, which is the cause of human capital decline. This confirms the effect channel discussed above. Additionally, we use the quantile regression to analyze the effect on the technology innovation in districts with different levels of economy development. The result shows that the higher the economy develops in a region, the worse will the aging problem affect the innovation in the region. We also analyze how the aging problem affects the different structures of technology innovation. Our findings suggest that aging problem has a negative effect only on the granted amount of invention patent applications and design patent applications.

Key words: aging population problem, technology innovation, human capital, mechanism analysis

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