世界经济 ›› 2016, Vol. ›› Issue (11): 3-27.

• •    下一篇

破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜

杨娇辉1, 王伟2, 谭娜3   

  1. 1. 中山大学国际金融学院 中山大学国际经济研究中心;
    2. 中山大学岭南学院 广州市海珠区新港西路135号 510275;
    3. 中山大学岭南学院
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-01 出版日期:2016-11-10 发布日期:2016-11-29
  • 通讯作者: 王伟(通讯作者),电子信箱:wangw48@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:wangw48@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    作者感谢广东省自然科学博士启动项目(2014A030310079)、广东省高校高层次人才项目(珠江学者1414003)、国家自然科学基金(71473278)、教育部基地重大项目(14JJD790020)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(16wkpy17、16wkpy10)资助。

The Puzzle of Chinese OFDI's Institutional Risk Preference in Location Choice: An Empirical Investigation

Yang Jiaohui1, Wang Wei2, Tan Na3   

  • Received:2016-06-01 Online:2016-11-10 Published:2016-11-29

摘要: 针对当前中国OFDI的“制度风险偏好”问题,本文基于2003-2014年中国OFDI区位分布的流量数据,从国际资本流动的视角,使用面板分位数模型考察东道国制度风险与中国OFDI区位分布之间的关系。研究发现:中国OFDI区位分布的所谓“制度风险偏好”并不是绝对的,当使用相对制度质量指标,并且控制东道国资本密集度与自然资源丰富程度的影响后,“制度风险偏好”消失,并呈现出与主流国际资本流动理论完全相符的风险规避特征。因此,“制度风险偏好”很大程度上是由于中国OFDI更多地流向经济发展水平较低、自然资源更为丰富的区域造成的。

关键词: 对外直接投资, 区位选择, 相对制度质量, 面板分位数

Abstract: By applying the quantile panel data model on the 2003-2014 data, this paper investigates the relationship between host country's institutional risk and the location choice of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from the perspective of international capital mobility. Our analysis shows that the so-called institutional risk preference pattern of China's OFDI is contingent. This phenomenon tends to vanish and even exhibits a reversed pattern of risk aversion, which is in accordance with the mainstream international investment theory after applying the relative institution quality and controlling for the impacts of host country's capital intensity and natural resource abundance. Therefore, it is natural to conclude that the so-called institutional risk preference is actually attributed to the fact that China's OFDI heavily flows into areas with lower economic development and with more abundant natural resources. Furthermore, the higher the percentile of the China's OFDI is, the smaller the influence of the host country's institution quality becomes. That is, the small magnitude of China's OFDI inflow is mainly due to the relatively weak institution quality of the host country. A high institution quality, however, has limited influence on advancing the massive flow of China's OFDI into host country. The results hold in a series of robust tests.

Key words: OFDI, location choice, relative institution quality, quantile panel data model

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