世界经济 ›› 2021, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 25-53.

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生产网络结构、减税降费与福利效应

倪红福1,2   

  1. 1. 中国社会科学院经济研究所 北京市西城区月坛北小街2号 100836;
    2. 中国社会科学院大学经济学院 北京市房山区长于大街11号 102488
  • 出版日期:2021-01-10 发布日期:2021-01-23
  • 作者简介:倪红福:中国社会科学院经济研究所北京市西城区月坛北小街2号100836,中国社会科学院大学经济学院北京市房山区长于大街11号102488电子信箱:nihongfu_justin@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国产业迈向价值链中高端:理论内涵、测度和路径分析”(71873142)和国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发性公共卫生事件的全球价值链重构效应:基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型方法”(72073142)的资助。

Production Network Structure, Tax and Fee Reduction and Welfare Effects

Ni Hongfu1,2   

  • Online:2021-01-10 Published:2021-01-23

摘要: 本文构建了嵌入增值税、其他生产税和要素税费的投入产出网络结构一般均衡模型,创造性地编制了与模型协调一致的税收社会核算矩阵,进而模拟分析减税降费的福利效应。研究表明:在149部门的基准情景下,2017年税收楔子导致离前沿的福利损失率约为1.26%,损失价值约为12 346亿元,且经济系统中的替代弹性系数越大,生产网络结构越复杂,税收扭曲程度和福利损失越大;生产网络结构放大了减税降费的福利效应,经济系统中产品部门越多,投入产出联系越复杂,减税降费的福利收益越大;结构性减税降费有利于促进经济增长和提高社会福利,在同等程度减税降费总额下,相对于前50%高税率产品部门,对前30%高税率产品部门减税降费的福利收益更大。

关键词: 生产网络结构, 投入产出, 减税降费, 福利损失

Abstract: This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of the input-output network structure embedded with value-added tax and other taxes on production and factors; it creatively compiles a tax social accounting matrix consistent with the model, and then analyses the welfare effect due to the reduction of taxes and fees by performing a counterfactual simulation. The results indicate the following:Under a 149-sector benchmark scenario, the welfare loss rate of the tax wedge in 2017 was approximately 1.26% and the loss value was approximately RMB 1,234.6 billion. The higher the substitution elasticity coefficient in the economic system, the more complex the production network structure becomes, and the greater the degree of tax distortion and welfare loss. The production network structure magnifies the welfare effect of reducing taxes and fees. The more product sectors there are in the economic system, the more complex the input-output relationship becomes, and the greater the welfare benefits of reducing taxes and fees. Structural tax cuts and fee reductions are conducive to promoting economic growth and improving social welfare. Under the same level of total tax and fee reduction, compared to the top 50% of high tax-rate product sectors, the welfare benefits of tax and fee reductions for the top 30% of high tax-rate product sectors are greater.

Key words: production network structure, input-output, tax and fee reduction, welfare loss