世界经济 ›› 2021, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 106-125.

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结构转型、生育率选择与人口转变

郭凯明1, 颜色2, 李双潞3   

  1. 1. 中山大学岭南学院 广州市新港西路135号 510275;
    2. 北京大学光华管理学院 北京市颐和园路5号 100871;
    3. 香港中文大学(深圳)研究生院 深圳市龙翔大道2001号 518000
  • 出版日期:2021-01-10 发布日期:2021-01-23
  • 通讯作者: 颜色(通讯作者):北京大学光华管理学院北京市颐和园路5号100871,电子信箱:seyan@gsm.pku.edu.cn。 E-mail:seyan@gsm.pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:郭凯明:中山大学岭南学院广州市新港西路135号510275电子信箱:guokm3@mail.sysu.edu.cn;李双潞:香港中文大学(深圳)研究生院深圳市龙翔大道2001号518000电子信箱:lishlu@mail2.sysu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973156、71973006)、国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA049)、广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2019A1515011287)的资助。

Structural Transformation, Fertility Choice and Demographic Transition

Guo Kaiming1, Yan Se2, Li Shuanglu3   

  • Online:2021-01-10 Published:2021-01-23

摘要: 结构转型和人口转变是一个经济体跨越中等收入陷阱时普遍发生的现象,也是新时代中国经济高质量发展所面临的基本特征。本文建立一个内生结构转型和人口增长的代际交叠模型,提出一方面劳动生产率提高抬升了实际工资,这一总量效应促使家庭提高生育率;另一方面工农业劳动生产率相对服务业更快提高抬升了服务相对价格和养育相对成本,这一结构效应促使家庭降低生育率。随着结构效应取代总量效应发挥主导作用,经济将发生服务业比重提高的结构转型和生育率下降的人口转变,同时劳动力质量增长逐渐放缓。因此在进行供给侧结构性改革时,补民生短板的政策应同时到位,通过降低家庭在子女教育和卫生上的支出成本,缓冲结构转型对劳动力增长的不利影响。

关键词: 结构转型, 生育率, 人口转变, 劳动力供给

Abstract: Structural transformation and demographic transition are phenomena that occur in most economies that successfully escape the middle-income trap, and they are also key features in the new era of China's high-quality development.This paper establishes an intergenerational overlapping model of endogenous structural transformation and population growth and it proposes, on the one hand, that the aggregate effect-due to the increase in real wages driven by labour productivity growth-could influence families in increasing the fertility rate.On the other hand, due to the increase in the relative price of services and the relative cost of parenting driven by faster growth in the productivity of industrial and agricultural labour in relation to the services sector, the structural effect could decrease the fertility rate.As the structural effect replaces the aggregate effect to play a prominent role, the economy will undergo a structural transformation with an increase in the share of the services sector and a demographic transition with a decrease in its fertility rate, while the growth of its labour quality will gradually slow down.Therefore, in order to improve the supply-side industrial structure, policies should be designed to compensate for deficiencies in people's livelihoods.By reducing household spending on health and education, the negative impact of structural transformation on labour supply growth could be cushioned.

Key words: structural transformation, fertility rate, demographic transition, labour supply