世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (8): 3-28.

• •    下一篇

投入产出结构、行业异质性与中国经济波动

鄢莉莉1, 吴利学2   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学金融学院;
    2. 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所 北京市西城区月坛北小街2号 100836
  • 出版日期:2017-08-10 发布日期:2017-09-12
  • 通讯作者: 吴利学,E-mail:wulixue@sina.com E-mail:wulixue@sina.com
  • 作者简介:鄢莉莉,中央财经大学金融学院
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目(71203233、71603302)的资助。

Input-Output Structure,Industrial Heterogeneity and China's Economic Fluctuations

Yan Lili1, Wu Lixue2   

  • Online:2017-08-10 Published:2017-09-12

摘要: 本文以中国经济现实为基础,构建并估计了一个具有投入产出结构的新凯恩斯多行业DSGE模型,分析了外生冲击对宏观经济、行业经济的差异性影响,以及投入产出结构、行业消费结构、价格黏性、要素密集度等行业异质性特征在宏观总量与行业波动中的作用。基于中国1996-2014年季度数据的校准和估计,我们发现:多行业模型与传统单行业模型模拟得到的外生冲击对宏观经济总量的影响总体一致,但外生冲击对行业经济的影响存在明显差异,主要原因来自行业间在价格黏性、投入产出结构和要素密集度方面的差异及其相互作用。本文的多行业模型可以更好地分析中国宏观和行业经济波动,并作为相关政策实验的参考。

关键词: 多行业DSGE模型, 投入产出结构, 行业异质性, 经济波动

Abstract: This paper constructs and estimates an 8-industry New Keynesian DSGE model with input-output structure and industrial heterogeneities to investigate the impact of exogenous shocks on aggregate and industrial business cycle and its transmission mechanism.According to the calibration and estimation based on China's quarterly data from 1996 Q1 to 2014 Q3,we find that the aggregate responses to exogenous shocks in the multi-sector model are qualitatively similar to those in the traditional one-sector model.Nevertheless,the exogenous shocks trigger different reactions in different industries.The different reactions across industries are mainly generated by heterogeneities in price stickiness,input-output structure,factor intensity in production and their interactions.Therefore,the multi-sector DSGE model proposed by this paper can retain most characteristic features of its traditional one-sector counterpart,and simultaneously account for the industrial fluctuation,as well as the heterogeneity of industrial economy.

Key words: multi-sector DSGE model, input-output structure, industrial heterogeneity, economic fluctuation

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