世界经济 ›› 2016, Vol. ›› Issue (11): 104-125.

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经济波动中的中国地方政府与企业税负:以企业所得税为例

李明1, 赵旭杰1, 冯强2   

  1. 1. 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院财政税务系 北京市朝阳区惠新东街10号博学楼1223室 100029;
    2. 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院数量经济系
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-01 出版日期:2016-11-10 发布日期:2016-11-29
  • 通讯作者: 李明,电子信箱:lamenfdren@126.com E-mail:lamenfdren@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    作者感谢国家自然科学基金项目(71301026、71303043)、教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(13YJC790075)及对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CXTD7-01)的资助。

Local Government Incentives, Economic Volatility and the Corporate Tax Burden

Li Ming1, Zhao Xujie1, Feng Qiang2   

  • Received:2016-05-01 Online:2016-11-10 Published:2016-11-29

摘要: 本文以企业所得税为例,检验了经济波动中企业实际有效税率(ETRS)的变动规律。在匹配1998-2007年全部国有及规模以上工业企业与地级市数据后我们发现,中国企业税负呈顺周期特征,地方实际产出每低于潜在产出1%,企业实际有效税率约上升0.12%-0.19%。经济波动对企业税负的影响具有异质性,隶属地方政府的企业受经济波动影响更显著,这与地方政府在经济衰退时倾向实施扩张性的财政支出政策有关:高税率在短期内能为财政支出融资,隶属地方的企业由于流动性弱,易受地方政府干预,税负增幅明显。以上结论表明,中国存在着中央逆周期宏观调控意图被地方政府顺周期行为削弱的可能。近期呈现出的企业税负向逆周期转向的新趋势,有助于弱化这一扭曲。

关键词: 经济波动, 实际有效税率, 企业所得税, 周期性财税政策

Abstract: It has been a hot topic for ages that whether or not Chinese enterprises burdened more tax in the economic downturn, yet there was few academic research answering this question. This paper is the first one to test the moving pattern of effective tax rates (ETRS) against economy volatility by citing corporate income tax as an example. By matching the data of all state owned enterprises and above-scale industrial enterprises during 1998-2007 with prefecture-level data, this paper shows that if the local economy decreased by 1% from the potential output level, then the ETRS rose by approximately 0.12%-0.19%. Moreover, economy volatility had heterogeneous effect on corporate tax rate. Specifically, enterprises owned by local government were much more affected by economy fluctuations. A potential reason could be that local governments tend to carry out large-scale expansionary fiscal policy in economic recessions. Since higher ETRS naturally help fund the expansion, enterprises owned by local government are more vulnerable to government policies. The above results suggest the possibility that central government's countercyclical macroeconomic policies may be weakened or distorted by the procyclical behaviors of local governments. However, this paper also notices that, the above mentioned distortion has been alleviated recently as the moving pattern of Chinese ETRS switches from procyclical to countercyclical.

Key words: economy volatility, ETRS, corporate income tax, cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

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