世界经济 ›› 2016, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 29-53.

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迈向平衡的增长: 利率管制、多重失衡与改革战略

陈斌开1, 陆铭2   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学经济学院 100081;
    2. 上海交通大学 复旦大学
  • 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-10-21
  • 作者简介:陈斌开:中央财经大学经济学院 北京市海淀区学院南路39号 100081电子信箱:chenbinkai@cufe.edu.cn;陆铭:上海交通大学 复旦大学 电子信箱:luming1973@sjtu.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    本文是国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融抑制、资源错配与中国消费需求”(71273289)和国家社科基金重大招标项目“转型发展新阶段中国经济增长动力研究”(14ZDB120)、“推动我国经济持续健康发展的基本要求、根本途径和政策选择研究”(13&ZD015)的阶段性成果。

Toward A Balanced Growth: Interest Rate Regulation, Multi-Dimensional Imbalances and Reform Strategies

Chen Binkai1, Lu Ming2   

  • Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-10-21

摘要: 与国际经验相比,中国经济长期以来呈现出多重失衡的特征,中国经济多重失衡必然是由某些“异常”因素所致。基于利率管制的视角,本文在统一的框架下解释了本世纪初中国经济多重失衡的六个核心现象:产业结构快速资本深化,城市化滞后于工业化进程,就业增长速度落后于经济增长速度,劳动报酬增长滞后于劳动生产率增长,国民收入分配不断从居民向企业和政府倾斜,消费占GDP比重持续下降。相互关联的多重失衡是利率管制下中国经济“结构性动态无效率”的表现,“扭曲的增长”在未来难以持续。为使“改革”赢得与“危机”的赛跑,让利率反映资本回报,是加快金融市场改革的重中之重。

关键词: 利率管制, 结构失衡, 结构性动态无效率

Abstract: China is an'outlier' of standard economic theories and system in many aspects, which implies that there are some'anomalies' behind China's unbalanced growth. From the perspective of financial repression, this paper interprets China's six major facts of economic multi-dimensional imbalances within a unified framework: (1) rapid capital deepening in the industrial sector; (2) urbanization lagging behind industrialization; (3) employment growth falling far behind economic growth; (4)labour compensation growth trailing behind labour productivity growth; (5)continuous deterioration of income distribution from residents to enterprises and government; (6) continuous decline of the ratio of consumption to GDP. These facts about the correlated multi-dimensional imbalance are due to financial repression, under which China's economy suffers from the "structural dynamic inefficiency". The distorted growth pattern cannot be sustained in the future. Therefore, to win the race between "reform" and "crisis", letting interests rate reflect capital return is crucial in the expedition of the financial market reform.

Key words: financial repression, multi-dimensional imbalances, dynamic inefficiency