世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 51-73.

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基础设施投资对产业结构转型和生产率提高的影响

郭凯明, 王藤桥   

  1. 中山大学岭南学院 广州市新港西路135号 510275
  • 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2019-11-20
  • 作者简介:郭凯明,电子信箱:guokm3@mail.sysu.edu.cn;王藤桥,电子信箱:wangtq3@mail2.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目"人口和劳动力的规模、年龄结构和质量转变对产业结构转型升级的影响"(71973156)、广东省自然科学基金面上项目"基础设施投资结构转型对产业结构升级和要素收入分配的影响研究"的资助。

Effects of Infrastructure Investment on Structural Change and Productivity Growth

Guo Kaiming, Wang Tengqiao   

  • Online:2019-11-10 Published:2019-11-20

摘要: 基础设施投资高速增长是改革开放以来中国经济的典型特征,它不仅拉动了总需求,而且在供给侧影响了产业结构转型和生产率提高。本文建立了一个包含基础设施投资的多部门一般均衡模型,展示了基础设施投资从价格效应、投资效应和收入效应渠道影响产业结构转型,从集约边际效应和广延边际效应渠道影响生产率提高的经济机制。本文使用上述理论模型量化分析1981-2017年中国基础设施投资的影响,发现基础设施投资抑制了服务业比重上升,但提高了劳动生产率增速。本文建议进入高质量发展阶段的中国继续加大基础设施投资以提高生产率,但为了推动产业结构升级,基础设施投资结构应当做出调整,向新型基础设施和民生基础设施等领域倾斜。

关键词: 产业结构转型, 基础设施投资, 劳动生产率

Abstract: The rapid growth of infrastructure investment has been one of the most striking features of the Chinese economy during the reform and opening up era. It not only stimulates aggregate demand, but also affects structural change and productivity growth on the supply-side. This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model, which shows how the infrastructure investment affects structural change through the price, investment and income effects, while it also influences productivity growth through intensive and extensive marginal effects. By quantifying the model with Chinese economy data between 1981 and 2017, the paper finds that infrastructure investment restrained the rise of services, but promoted labour productivity growth in that period. The policy implications are that while China should continue to promote infrastructure investment to increase productivity in the high-quality development era, the infrastructure investment composition should weigh more on new infrastructure that related to people's livelihoods.

Key words: structural change, infrastructure investment, labor productivity

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