世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10): 49-72.

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经济不确定性是否会弱化中国货币政策有效性

苏治1, 刘程程2, 位雪丽3   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学统计与数学学院、金融学院 北京市海淀区学院南路39号 100081;
    2. 中央财经大学统计与数学学院;
    3. 河南财经政法大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2019-10-10 发布日期:2019-10-24
  • 通讯作者: 苏治(通讯作者),电子信箱:suzhi1218@163.com E-mail:suzhi1218@163.com
  • 作者简介:刘程程,电子信箱:lcc921018@163.com;位雪丽,电子信箱:weixueli87@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDC024)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473279)和2018年国家公派出国留学项目(201806490076)的资助。

Will Economic Uncertainty Weaken the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy?

Su Zhi1, Liu Chengcheng2, Wei Xueli3   

  • Online:2019-10-10 Published:2019-10-24

摘要: 本文从理论上厘清了经济不确定性对货币政策有效性的具体影响机制,将中国股市波动率和经济政策不确定性指数(EPU)作为不确定性的度量,构造经济产出和价格水平因子作为货币政策调控效果的衡量指标,系统考察了高低两种经济不确定性情形下的货币政策有效性,并将金融危机前后的差异进行对比。结果显示,不确定性仅会在量上影响货币政策调控效果,并不会改变其作用方向,不确定性会削弱货币政策有效性,这种弱化程度在金融危机后表现得更加明显。本研究对于央行准确把握货币政策调控的方向与力度,避免经济大起大落有重要意义。

关键词: 经济不确定性, 货币政策, 经济产出, 价格水平, 金融危机

Abstract: This paper theoretically clarifies the specific influential path between economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy, regards China's stock market volatility and the EPU index as measures of economic uncertainty, constructs the two factors of economic output and price level to measure the policy's effects, inspects the effectiveness of monetary policy under two cases of high and low degree of uncertainty, and compares the differences before and after the financial crisis.The results show:economic uncertainty will only affect the monetary policy tools' effect quantitatively, and will not change their roles in the direction; economic uncertainty will weaken the policy's effectiveness; the weakening degree mentioned above has become more evident after the financial crisis.This study is of great value for the central bank to avoid the policy passivity under serious economic fluctuations and enhance the accuracy as well as the effectiveness of decision making.

Key words: economic uncertainty, monetary policy, economic output, price level, financial crisis

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