世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 101-122.

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利率市场化改革是否弱化了货币政策传导的“伯南克之谜”

战明华1,2,3,4, 李帅5, 刘恩慧5, 许月丽6   

  1. 1. 广东外语外贸大学金融学院;
    2. 广州市人文社科重点研究基地华南财富管理研究中心;
    3. 浙江理工大学经管学院;
    4. 广州市小谷围大学城广东外语外贸大学 510006;
    5. 浙江理工大学经管学院;
    6. 广东外语外贸大学经贸学院
  • 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2019-04-19
  • 通讯作者: 战明华(通讯作者):电子信箱:zhanmheco@163.com E-mail:zhanmheco@163.com
  • 作者简介:李帅:电子信箱:alishuai2010@126.com;刘恩慧:电子信箱:853154357@qq.com;许月丽:电子信箱:xuyueli72@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重点项目(16AZD015)、浙江省软科学重点项目(2017C25020)、浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目(2016GH001)以及广东外语外贸大学创新团队项目的资助

Does Market-Oriented Interest Rate Reform Weaken “The Bernanke's Puzzle” in Relation to Monetary Policy Transmission in China?

Zhan Minghua1,2,3,4, Li Shuai5, Liu Enhui5, Xu Yueli6   

  • Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-19

摘要: "伯南克之谜"描述的是现实货币政策传导同利率传导渠道理论预期相悖离的三大特征,这些特征来自发达经济体,而新常态下中国经济环境有自己的鲜明特色,利率市场化推进会弱化伯南克之谜的理论预期未必符合中国的经济事实。本文研究发现,利率市场化对伯南克之谜的弱化作用小于预期,机制是预期通货膨胀效应和利率期限结构效应改变了货币政策的传导效果。本研究的政策含义是,数量型和价格型工具对货币政策的实施同样重要;构建完善的货币政策利率调控体系不能仅依赖利率市场化本身,经济市场化体系的完善更为重要。

关键词: 伯南克之谜, 利率市场化改革, 货币政策传导机制

Abstract: "The Bernanke's Puzzle" generally describes three characteristics that are contrary to the theoretical expectations of the transmission of real monetary policy and channels of interest rates; however,these characteristics are drawn from developed economies,and China's economic environment under the New Normality presents its own distinctive features. Thus,while advances in interest rate marketization should weaken the theoretical expectation of the Bernanke's puzzle,the conclusions may not be in line with the economic facts in China. The empirical study shows that,through the effects of expected inflation and the term structure of interest rates,the Chinese market-oriented interest rate reform effectively undermines the Bernanke's puzzle,but to a lesser extent than the theoretical expectation. The policy implication of the study is that quantitative and price-based monetary tools are equally important for the implementation of monetary policies in China. The construction of a perfect interest rate regulation system of monetary policies cannot only rely on the interest rate market reform itself; instead,the market-oriented reform of the whole economy may become a more important factor.

Key words: the Bernanke's puzzle, market-oriented interest rate reform, monetary policy transmission mechanism