世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 26-46.

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人民币增加值有效汇率及其向不可贸易品部门的拓展

杨盼盼1, 李晓琴2, 徐奇渊1   

  1. 1. 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 北京东城区建国门内大街5号 100732;
    2. The Conference Board
  • 出版日期:2019-02-10 发布日期:2019-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 杨盼盼:电子信箱:pamelapanda@126.com E-mail:pamelapanda@126.com
  • 作者简介:徐奇渊:电子信箱:xuqiy@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年基金(71503263)的资助。

RMB Value-Added Effective Exchange Rates and the Extended Analysis to the Non-Tradable Sector

Yang Panpan1, Li Xiaoqin2, Xu Qiyuan1   

  • Online:2019-02-10 Published:2019-02-25

摘要: 本文测算了加总和全口径分行业人民币增加值有效汇率,共包含了可贸易品和不可贸易品部门在内的33个行业,采用增加值有效汇率测算方法以更好地体现人民币的对外竞争力。研究发现,加总层面人民币汇率在经增加值贸易调整后的上升幅度高于传统有效汇率的上升幅度。分行业看,不同于传统理解,部分不可贸易品行业的增加值有效汇率上升幅度同样较高,其上升幅度甚至高于某些可贸易品行业,因此需要关注不可贸易品行业的对外竞争力变化及其理论和政策含义。在中国不断融入全球价值链和进一步对外开放的进程中,基于增加值的有效汇率应当作为理解人民币对外竞争力和面临外部冲击时的重要工具。

关键词: 增加值有效汇率, 人民币, 可贸易品, 不可贸易品, 全球价值链

Abstract: This paper establishes the aggregate and industrial level RMB effective exchange rate (EER), providing a comprehensive range of data including 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors; it uses the value-added method to construct EER and thus promote a better understanding of China's external competitiveness. The results show that RMB exchange rate appreciation is greater after adjusting weights by considering the global value chain from the aggregate perspective. In contrast to the traditional understanding, some non-tradable sectors also experience a high level of appreciation, which provides new policies and theoretical insights into the competitiveness of non-tradable sectors. Due to its greater integration into the global value chain and further opening-up to the outside world, China should be considering the use of the value-added EER as an important tool to better understand the RMB external competitiveness and external shocks.

Key words: value-added effective exchange rate, RMB, tradable goods, non-tradable goods, global value chain

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