世界经济 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 49-73.

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全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期联动:基于增加值贸易视角

唐宜红1, 张鹏杨2, 梅冬州1   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院北京市海淀区学院南路39号 100081;
    2. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院北京市朝阳区平乐园100号 100124
  • 出版日期:2018-11-10 发布日期:2018-11-17
  • 通讯作者: 张鹏杨(通讯作者),电子信箱:fhly0401@163.com E-mail:fhly0401@163.com
  • 作者简介:唐宜红,电子信箱:tanguibe@126.com;梅冬州,电子信箱:meidongzhoupku@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文获得国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD097)、国家自然科学基金项目(71803005)和北京市社科基金项目(18YJC028)的资助。

The Global Value Chain Embeddedness and International Business Cycle Co-movement: Based on the View of Value-Added Trade

Tang Yihong1, Zhang Pengyang2, Mei Dongzhou1   

  • Online:2018-11-10 Published:2018-11-17

摘要: 本文利用行业层面双边出口的增加值分解数据,从增加值贸易视角研究了全球价值链(GVC)嵌入对国际经济周期联动的影响。结果表明:GVC嵌入是促进经济周期联动的重要因素。从行业层面上看,同行业和跨行业的GVC嵌入均具有显著的积极影响,但同行业嵌入对国内增加值存在明显的"挤出效应",而服务业与制造业的相互嵌入对经济周期联动的促进作用较大;从区域层面上看,欧盟、北美的区域内价值链以及欧盟、北美和亚太相互之间的区域间价值链嵌入程度较高,对经济周期联动的影响较大;从国别层面来看,垂直一体化程度最高的"南北国家嵌入"对经济周期联动影响最大。此外,对中国经验的考察也发现了GVC嵌入对经济周期联动总体上具有积极影响。

关键词: GVC嵌入, 增加值贸易, 国际经济周期联动

Abstract: Using the value-added data of bilateral exports at the industry level, we examine the impact of global value chain embeddedness(GVCE) on international business cycle co-movement(IBCC). The results show that GVCE is one of the most important factors to promote IBCC. At the industrial level, GVCE has a significant positive impact on IBCC in both intra- and inter-industry.However, there is an obvious "crowding out effect" in value-added trading through embeddedness within the same industries, while the embeddedness across the manufacturing and service sectors presents a significantly positive impact on IBCC. At the regional level, the GVCE in the intra-regional value chain of the European Union and North America, and the inter-regional value chain between the European Union, North America and Asia-Pacific are high, which means they have a strong impact on the IBCC. At the country level, the embeddedness of developed countries and developing countries with higher integration shows a stronger impact than others. As for China, we find similar results.

Key words: global value chain embeddedness (GVCE), value-added trade, international business cycle co-movement

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