世界经济 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 3-27.

• •    下一篇

国民收入视角下的中美贸易平衡分析

李鑫茹1, 陈锡康1, 段玉婉2, 祝坤福3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 中国科学院大学 中科院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 100190;
    2. 中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 100081;
    3. 对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院 100029
  • 出版日期:2018-06-10 发布日期:2018-06-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473244、71704195)和对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CXTD7-06)的资助。

An Analysis on Sino-US Trade Balance from the Perspective of National Income

Li Xinru1, Chen Xikang1, Duan Yuwan2, Zhu Kunfu3   

  • Online:2018-06-10 Published:2018-06-25

摘要: 本文利用区分内外资的投入产出模型核算了国民收入视角下的中美贸易差额。结果显示,由于两国出口对外资依赖程度不同,2012年中国对美国出口拉动的国内增加值中仅有87.7%属于中国国民收入,而美国对中国的出口增加值中属于美国国民收入的占比则高达96.2%。出口拉动的本国国民收入可以更真实地反映一国贸易收益,2012年国民收入视角下的中美贸易顺差为1028亿美元,比以贸易总值和贸易增加值核算的顺差分别缩小61%和22%,说明以贸易总值和贸易增加值核算的方法均严重夸大了中美贸易失衡。

关键词: 国民收入, 中美贸易差额, 投入产出模型, 外商直接投资

Abstract: This study estimated the US-China trade deficit from the perspective of national income, using new input-output models that take into account the heterogeneity of firms in income distribution. The 2012 results showed that China's national income generated by its exports to the US accounted for only 87.7% of the domestic value added, while the US national income generated by the American exports to China was up to 96.2% due to different dependencies of their exports on foreign direct investment (FDI) and other foreign production factors. National income induced by exports is a better indicator for measuring trade benefits. Sino-US trade surplus in 2012 was 102.8 billion from the national income perspective, which is 61% and 22% less than the bilateral trade surplus measured by the total volume of trade and value-added in trade, respectively. This suggests that traditional trade gap accounting methods exaggerate the Sino-US trade imbalance.

Key words: national income, Sino-US trade balance, input-output model, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

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