世界经济 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 28-52.

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关税政策不确定性如何影响就业与工资

李胜旗1, 毛其淋2   

  1. 1. 首都经济贸易大学金融学院 100070;
    2. 南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所、跨国公司研究中心、中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心 天津市卫津路94号南开大学 300071
  • 出版日期:2018-06-10 发布日期:2018-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 毛其淋(通讯作者),电子信箱:maoqilin@nankai.edu.cn E-mail:maoqilin@nankai.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李胜旗,电子信箱:mrlsq@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71773055)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(63172019)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJC790114)的资助。

How does Tariff Policy Uncertainty Influence Employment and Wages?

Li Shengqi1, Mao Qilin2   

  • Online:2018-06-10 Published:2018-06-25

摘要: 本文在一个准自然实验的框架下,采用双重差分法考察了关税政策不确定性(TPU)下降对中国企业就业与工资的影响。我们发现,TPU下降显著促进了企业就业净增长,并且这一效应随时间推移逐步增强;进一步的渠道检验表明,TPU下降除通过"提高就业创造"与"降低就业破坏"促进企业就业净增长外,出口扩张也是其促进企业就业净增长的重要渠道。本文还进一步研究了TPU与企业工资的关系,发现TPU下降不仅显著提高了企业平均工资,还缩小了其工资差距。此外,TPU下降显著提高了企业劳动密集型产品的出口占比,而劳动密集型产品出口规模的相对扩张会促进企业更多雇佣非技术劳动力,从而有助于缩小企业工资差距。

关键词: 关税政策不确定性, 就业创造, 就业破坏, 工资差距

Abstract: This paper adopts the difference in differences (DID) technique to investigate the effects of tariff policy uncertainty (hereinafter referred to as TPU) on the employment and wages of Chinese firms under a quasi-natural experiment framework. At first glance, we found that TPU reduction has contributed significantly to the firms' net employment growth, and that such an impact has been strengthened over time. The mechanism test shows that TPU reduction has not only promoted the firms' net employment growth through the "increase in job creation" but that this has also resulted in the "reduction of the destruction of it". On the other hand, it is noted that export expansion is also an important channel through which TPU reduction has been promoting the firms' net employment growth. In addition, this paper has continued to explore the relationship between TPU and the firms' wages. The results show that on the one hand, TPU reduction significantly raises the firms' average wages, while on the other, it has significantly narrowed the wage gap. Other evidence shows that TPU reduction has significantly increased the export share of the labour-intensive products of the firms involved, while the relative expansion of the export scale of labour-intensive products has tended to induce firms to hire more unskilled labour, which in turn has helped to reduce the wage gap within them.

Key words: Tariff Policy Uncertainty (TPU), job creation, job destruction, wage gap

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