世界经济 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 71-94.

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中国工业品宏微观Armington弹性:估算、应用与决定因素

许统生1, 廖秋敏1,2, 涂远芬1   

  1. 1. 江西财经大学国际经贸学院;
    2. 江西理工大学
  • 出版日期:2018-02-10 发布日期:2018-02-27
  • 通讯作者: 廖秋敏,电子信箱:liaoqiumin69@163.com E-mail:liaoqiumin69@163.com
  • 作者简介:许统生,电子信箱:xu3816331@126.com;涂远芬,电子信箱:jxnctyf@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71773042、71263016)和教育部人文社会科学项目(16YJC790055)的资助。

Macro and Micro Armington Elasticity for China's Industrial Products: Estimation, Application and Determinants

Xu Tongsheng1, Liao Qiumin1,2, Tu Yuanfen1   

  • Online:2018-02-10 Published:2018-02-27

摘要: 本文将国家统计局发布的39种工业品的商品名称同贸易品海关编码进行匹配,以1998-2011年中国与161个贸易伙伴和常年贸易伙伴的数据为样本,估计了中国39种工业品的Armington宏微观替代弹性,并进一步测算了中国进口需求关于人民币汇率的弹性,分析了宏观替代弹性的决定因素。研究结果表明:只有48.7%的工业品宏微观替代弹性没有显著差异,增加进口贸易伙伴使得部分产品宏观替代弹性发生显著变化;人民币升值会使进口需求额减少且大部分行业差异性不大;宏观替代弹性的决定因素主要是本地偏好和进口配额。

关键词: 宏观替代弹性, 微观替代弹性, 工业品与贸易品对接

Abstract: By matching the names of 39 categories of industrial products from National Bureau of Statistics of China with HS code (HS1996) of commodity goods, this paper first estimates the macro and micro Armington elasticity of these industrial products, then calculates the aggregate import demand elasticity with respect to exchange rate by the results of estimation, and finally gives an empirical analysis on the determinants of macro elasticity of substitution. The data samples range from 1998 to 2011 covering all 161 trade partners and regular trade partners. The result shows that for only 48.7% industrial products there is no significant difference between the macro and micro elasticity of substitution, that for some industrial products increasing import trade partners has changed the macro elasticity of substitution significantly, that RMB appreciation does not increase but decrease the aggregate import demand instead and does not vary substantially between industries, and that the main determinants of macro elasticity are home bias and import quotas.

Key words: macro elasticity of substitution, micro elasticity of substitution, matching industrial products with traded goods

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