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### 美元定价约束下通货膨胀目标冲击的国际传导与福利效应

1. 1. 山东大学经济学院 济南市山大南路27号 250100;
2. 山东财经大学国际经贸学院 250014
• 出版日期:2018-02-10 发布日期:2018-02-27
• 作者简介:范爱军,电子信箱:fanaj@163.com;卞学字,电子信箱:595381184@qq.com。
• 基金资助:
教育部规划基金项目（15YJA790040）、山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2013GM019）及山东大学人文社科青年团队项目（2014IFYT1405）的资助。

### International Transmission and Welfare Effects of Inflation Target Shock under USD Pricing Constraint

Fan Aijun1, Bian Xuezi2

• Online:2018-02-10 Published:2018-02-27

Abstract: By further improving the NOEM model, we empirically estimate the two-country model under various capital market structures with quarterly data of China and U.S. We test moment match ability of the model and study the international transmission of inflation target shock in details. The paper reveals estimation of the model with noise exchange rate expectations is better than others. Relaxations of the symmetric structural parameters and introducing tradable goods pricing constraints significantly improve the model's moment match effect. Using variance decomposition we find inflation target shock is a key source of economic fluctuations of both countries. Further research with IRF analysis shows adjustment of inflation target benefits domestic economy but leads to obvious shrinking of trade partners' output and consumption, which is a typical beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy. Welfare analysis proves that higher trade openness and more deviation from rational expectation of foreign exchange market result in larger welfare loss of inflation target shock.