世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11): 95-119.

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汇率变化如何影响中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构

沈国兵1, 黄铄珺2   

  1. 1. 复旦大学世界经济研究所 上海市杨浦区国权路600号 200433;
    2. 复旦大学经济学院 上海市杨浦区国权路600号 200433
  • 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
  • 作者简介:沈国兵:电子信箱:guobingshen@fudan.edu.cn;黄铄珺:电子信箱:16110680022@fudan.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD058)、教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目《行业生产网络下创新保护与中国企业外贸竞争力提升研究》和国家自然科学基金项目(71573171)的资助。

How Do Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Technology Structure of China's Ordinary Trade Exports to the U.S.?

Shen Guobing1, Huang Shuojun2   

  • Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10

摘要: 本文基于中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构变化的统计分析,使用Tobit模型探究2003-2013年产品实际汇率变化对其影响。研究表明:(1)2007年前加工贸易夸大了中国对美国制造品出口技术程度,2007年后中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构有了明显提升,但仍需警惕"统计幻觉"。(2)中国对美国一般贸易品各技术类别产品出口份额受产品实际汇率的影响有着明显的差异,出口产品实际汇率升值提高了中国对美国一般贸易高技术产品出口份额。(3)中美宏观层面实际汇率升值提升了中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构,次贷危机后实际汇率波动增大不利于中国对美出口技术结构的提升。据此,需要细化分解,才能揭示出产品实际汇率变化与中国出口技术结构变化的真实关系。借助产品实际汇率升值的结构调整效应,中国应着力于创新来拉伸一般贸易价值链,以期促进经济增长。

关键词: 汇率变化, 中国对美出口, 一般贸易品, 出口技术结构

Abstract: By analyzing the data of China's ordinary trade exports to the US during 2003-2013, we adopt the Tobit model to explore the effect of real exchange rate changes on the technology structure of exports. The results show that: (1)Before 2007, processing trade exaggerated the technology level of China's manufacturing exports to the US; after 2007, the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US had a significant increase but still subject to a "statistical illusion". (2) The effect of real exchange rates on product shares varied among ordinary exports with different technology levels. The appreciation of real exchange rates of product enhanced the shares of China's HTM ordinary exports to the US, thus promoting the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US at the micro level. (3) At the macro level, the appreciation of the real RMB/USD exchange rate also promoted the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US. The increase of RMB volatility after the subprime crisis was harmful to the promotion of the technology structure of China's exports to the US. Thus, only with disaggregated product data can we reveal the authentic relationship between real exchange rate of products and the technology structure of exports. Backed by structural adjustment effect of real exchange rate appreciation of export product, China should strengthen technology innovation to extend the value chains of ordinary trade to sustain its economic growth.

Key words: exchange rate changes, China's export to the US, ordinary trade products, technology structure of exports

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