世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11): 120-143.

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货币国际化:基于成本渠道的影响因素和作用路径研究

彭红枫1, 谭小玉1, 祝小全2   

  1. 1. 武汉大学经济与管理学院 湖北省武汉巿武昌区八一路299号 430072;
    2. 清华大学五道口金融学院 北京市海淀区成府路43号 100083
  • 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 谭小玉:电子邮箱:tanxiaoyu1012@whu.edu.cn E-mail:tanxiaoyu1012@whu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:彭红枫:电子邮箱:fhpeng@whu.edu.cn;祝小全:电子邮箱:zhuxq.16@pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA032)、教育部人文社会科学研究项目(16YJA790040)和"泰山学者"专项工程经费的资助。

Currency Internationalization:Determinants and Conducting Mechanisms Based on Cost Channel

Peng Hongfeng1, Tan Xiaoyu1, Zhu Xiaoquan2   

  • Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10

摘要: 本文利用国际储备货币的币种结构来度量货币国际化程度,考虑因货币交易需求和原始储备币种分布的差异而产生的不同货币之间转换成本、货币储备不足的短缺成本和过度储备的机会成本,基于效用最大化原则,构建了外汇储备币种选择的因素决定模型。检验结果表明:人民币与现有国际货币具有相似的发展路径,惯性因素和汇率制度改革的影响不容忽视;经济规模仍然是人民币国际化最坚实的根基;成熟的金融市场和网络技术对货币国际化的促进作用会逐渐显现。目前应深化汇率制度改革并稳步推进资本账户开放,进而提高人民币的国际接受程度。

关键词: 货币国际化, 国际储备币种, 交易成本, 汇率制度改革

Abstract: This paper adopts the currency composition of international reserves as a proxy for the degree of currency internationalization. We consider three types of costs: conversion cost, shortage cost of inadequate reserves and opportunity cost of excessive reserves, all of which are derived from the difference between the demand for trading and the original distribution of currency reserves. Furthermore, we construct a selection model for the reserve currency based on utility maximization. Using data from 1999-2014, we then test the determinants of major international reserve currencies with dynamic panel GMM model. The empirical results show that RMB exhibits a similar development path with that of the existing international currencies. Economic strength still forms a solid base for RMB internationalization, while network externality and exchange rate reform also play important roles. Positive effects of mature financial markets and network technology are gradually emerging. At this stage, China should deepen the reform of exchange rate system and steadily push the opening of capital account to promote RMB internationalization.

Key words: currency internationalization, international reserve currency, trading cost, RMB exchange rate regime reform

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