世界经济 ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (6): 23-47.

• 马克思主义与当代世界经济学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

利率市场化、汇率自由化和资本账户开放的顺序

陈中飞1, 王曦2, 王伟3   

  1. 1. 暨南大学经济学院 中国经济发展与创新战略研究中心 广州市黄埔大道西601号 510632;
    2. 中山大学岭南学院 中国转型与开放经济研究所 广州市新港西路135号 510275;
    3. 中山大学中国转型与开放经济研究所 广州市新港西路135号 510275
  • 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 王曦:lnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn E-mail:lnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:陈中飞:hongyeczf@163.com;王伟:nkwangwei6@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA014)、广东省高校高层次人才项目(珠江学者1414003)、广东省自科基金项目(2016A030310083)的资助

The Sequencing of Interest Rate Marketization, Exchange Rate Deregulation and Capital Account Liberalization

Chen Zhongfei1, Wang Xi2, Wang Wei3   

  • Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-15

摘要: 基于Abiad、Anderson等学者构建的“金融改革”和汇率制度数据库,本文将格兰杰因果思想应用于离散型数据,运用有序probit和logit模型分析全球66个国家(地区)1970-2005年利率市场化、汇率自由化和资本账户开放三项改革相互促进的一般规律。我们还基于Reinhart和Rogoff的危机数据库,进一步考证三项改革对于货币危机爆发的影响。研究发现,汇率自由化与利率市场化互为因果相互促进,二者促进了资本账户开放进程;汇率自由化不仅有利于利率市场化、资本账户开放改革的实现,而且更有助于抑制货币危机的爆发。因而三项改革的顺序应该是汇率先行,利率跟随,资本账户最后。

关键词: 利率市场化, 汇率自由化, 资本账户开放

Abstract: Interest rate marketization, exchange rate regime deregulation and capital account liberalization are vitally important issues that China faces nowadays in financial reforms. The right timing of these issues, however, remains a hot debate. Based on the financial reform database by Abiad and Anderson et al., this paper is the first one to apply Granger's causality test to the discrete choice data and to utilize ordered probit and logit models to examine how the three financial reforms mutually promote each other during the period of 1970-2005. Thereafter, we further analyze how combinations of these policies affect the outbreak of crisis. We conclude that the interest rate marketization and exchange rate regime deregulation are Granger causes for each other, and they promote capital account liberalization. Meanwhile, exchange rate regime deregulation reduces the occurrence of crisis. Therefore, the optimal order of the financial reforms is: exchange rate regime deregulation goes first, interest rate marketization then follows, and capital account liberalization takes place at last.

Key words: interest rate marketization, exchange rate regime deregulation, capital account liberalization

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