世界经济 ›› 2020, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7): 49-72.

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地方政府债务扩张、企业融资成本与投资挤出效应

余海跃, 康书隆   

  1. 东北财经大学金融学院 辽宁省大连市沙河口区尖山街217号 116023
  • 出版日期:2020-07-10 发布日期:2020-07-17
  • 通讯作者: 康书隆(通讯作者),电子信箱:shulongkang@dufe.edu.cn E-mail:shulongkang@dufe.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:余海跃,电子信箱:yuhaiyue@dufe.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目(17BGL149)和辽宁省教育厅青年科技人才"育苗"项目(20190194)的资助。

Local Government Debt Expansion, Corporate Financing Cost and Crowding-out Effect on Investment

Yu Haiyue, Kang Shulong   

  • Online:2020-07-10 Published:2020-07-17

摘要: 近年来地方政府大量举债投资刺激经济,地方债务扩张对企业投资的影响是评估经济刺激政策效率的重要依据。本文建立理论模型分析地方政府债务影响企业投资的机理,并基于城市面板数据和中国工业企业数据库,检验地方债务对本地企业投资的净效应。研究发现:地方融资平台债务通过推高企业融资成本,挤出了企业投资;挤出效应不是由公开发行的城投债券导致,而是来自挤占地方金融资源的非公开发行债务;地方债务对高效率民营企业的挤出作用更强,这可能是近年来全要素生产率逐渐走低的重要原因。本文研究表明地方债务扩张不仅会扭曲资源配置、降低经济效率,还会加剧金融体系的系统性风险。

关键词: 地方政府债务, 企业投资, 挤出效应

Abstract: In recent years, Chinese local governments issued a large amount of public debt in order to stimulate the economy. The effectiveness of this economic stimulus policy based on local government debt (LGD) expansion should be evaluated by its influence on local corporate investment in fixed capital. After using a theoretical model to analyse the different types of LGD impact on corporate investments, this paper empirically examines its net effect using urban panel data and the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms dataset. The results show that:(i) local government debt has significantly crowded out corporate investment by pushing up corporate financing costs; (ii) the crowding-out effect is not caused by listed municipal investment bonds, but by local financing platforms' non-listed debt, which takes up credit resources in local financial markets; and (iii) the crowding-out effect is more pronounced in privately owned enterprises with higher production efficiency, which may have been a major cause of the gradual decline in TFP in recent years. This research reveals that expanding local government debt will not only distort resource allocation and lower economic efficiency, but also exacerbate the risk accumulation of local financial institutions.

Key words: local government debt, corporate investment, crowding-out effect