世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 97-120.

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中国最低工资上升是否导致了外资撤离

李磊, 王小霞, 蒋殿春, 方森辉   

  1. 南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所 跨国公司研究中心 中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心 天津市卫津路94号南开大学 300071
  • 出版日期:2019-08-10 发布日期:2019-08-17
  • 通讯作者: 王小霞(通讯作者),电子信箱:18353137801@163.com E-mail:18353137801@163.com
  • 作者简介:李磊,电子信箱:nklilei@nankai.edu.cn;蒋殿春,电子信箱:jdc@nankai.edu.cn;方森辉,电子信箱:nkfangsenhui@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(17YJC790072)“最低工资对中国企业‘走出去’的影响及对策研究”、国家社科基金项目(18BJL128)“全球价值链视角下企业‘走出去’对中国就业影响问题研究”的资助。

Has the Rising Minimum Wage in China Led to the Exit of Foreign Enterprises?

  • Online:2019-08-10 Published:2019-08-17

摘要: 劳动力成本上升导致的外资撤离是近年来一个重要的研究议题。本文基于中国工业企业数据和城市最低工资数据匹配得到的微观数据库,分析最低工资标准上升是否会导致外资企业撤出中国。研究表明:最低工资上升显著提高了外资企业撤出中国的概率,月最低工资每上升1个百分点,外资企业退出中国的概率将平均上升0.0743%。本文通过两种方法构造"准自然实验",基于双重差分模型的估计结果显示上述结论依然成立。最低工资上升引起外资企业退出中国的效应在不同特征企业之间存在异质性,主要导致低生产率、低端制造以及加工贸易外资企业退出中国。

关键词: 外商直接投资, 企业退出, 最低工资, 劳动力成本

Abstract: In recent years, the significant correlation between foreign investment withdrawal and rising labor cost has been extensively studied. Using the micro data of the China Industrial Statistics Database and monthly minimum wage data in Chinese cities, this paper empirically examines the influence of rising minimum wage on the withdrawal of foreign investment from China. The result shows the rise of minimum wage will indeed increase the probability of the withdrawal of foreign enterprises. Every 1% increase in minimum wage will contribute to 0.0743% increase in the withdrawal of foreign companies. To some extent, this result explains the withdrawal of some foreign companies in China. Taking into account the possible endogenous problems, we construct two difference-in-difference model,and further test the withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises, the conclusion is robust. Besides, the impact of rising minimum wages on the withdrawal of foreign enterprises is heterogeneous. Labor-intensive, low-end manufacturing, low-productivity, and processing trade foreign enterprises tend to experience a comparatively greater probability of the withdrawal when the minimum wage rises.

Key words: foreign direct investment, firm exit, minimum wage, labor cost

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