世界经济 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 47-71.

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财政政策反应函数与宏观调控政策取向研究

陈创练1, 林玉婷2   

  1. 1. 暨南大学金融研究所 经济学院 广州黄埔大道西601号 510632;
    2. 新加坡管理大学经济学院 新加坡维多利亚街81号 188065
  • 出版日期:2019-02-10 发布日期:2019-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 林玉婷:电子信箱:linytnew@aliyun.com E-mail:linytnew@aliyun.com
  • 作者简介:陈创练:电子信箱:chenchuanglian@jnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71771093)、教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA790009)以及暨南大学研究阐释党的十九大精神专题课题(JDZX03)的资助。

A Research on Fiscal Policy Response Function and Macro-Control Policy Orientation

Chen Chuanglian1, Lin Yuting2   

  • Online:2019-02-10 Published:2019-02-25

摘要: 本文构建财政政策时变反应函数模型,通过推导得到时变政策效果函数。经验结果表明,近年来中国财政政策表现出更强灵活性,存在明显盯住经济增长目标的政策取向。在财政赤字处于高位或增加时,政府被动负债削弱了盯住债务杠杆目标的政策取向;而财政赤字处于低位或下降时,政府倾向于采取反周期的策略主动降低债务杠杆。后次贷危机期间,财政政策表现出较强盯住房价目标的政策取向。从反事实政策效果看,究竟是采取单一的财政政策或货币政策来调控宏观经济更为有效,还是采取货币政策与财政政策组合更为合适,取决于宏观调控的不同政策目标。

关键词: 财政政策, 货币政策, 政府债务杠杆

Abstract: This paper constructs a time-varying response function model of fiscal policy, and then backsteps to obtain a time-varying policy effect evaluation function. Empirical results show that China's fiscal policy has been showing greater flexibility in recent years, with an obvious orientation towards economic growth. In periods of large or growing fiscal deficit, the government's passive debt has been weakening its policy orientation of pegging to the debt-leverage target. Conversely, in periods of low or declining fiscal deficits, the government has tended to adopt its own initiative, a counter cyclical approach on debt deleveraging. In particular, since the subprime mortgage crisis,China' fiscal policy has shown a strong policy orientation towards housing prices. Judging from the effect of counterfactual policy, there is no consistent conclusion as to whether it is more effective to adopt a single fiscal policy or monetary policy, or a mixed fiscal and monetary policy, when it comes to controlling macroeconomics, something that depends on the different regulatory objectives of macroeconomic policies.

Key words: fiscal policy, monetary policy, government debt leverage

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