世界经济 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 3-25.

• 十九大研究专题 •    下一篇

中国经济增长目标的选择:以高质量发展终结“崩溃论”

徐现祥1, 李书娟1, 王贤彬2, 毕青苗3   

  1. 1. 中山大学岭南学院;
    2. 暨南大学经济与社会研究院;
    3. 暨南大学经济学院、中国经济发展与创新战略研究中心 510632 广州市天河区黄埔大道西601号
  • 出版日期:2018-10-10 发布日期:2018-11-07
  • 通讯作者: 王贤彬,电子信箱:wangxianbin123@163.com E-mail:wangxianbin123@163.com
  • 作者简介:徐现祥,电子信箱:lnsxuxx@mail.sysu.edu.cn;毕青苗,电子信箱:biqingmiao215@gmail.com;李书娟,电子信箱:lishujuansure@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文曾在中山大学、北京大学报告,得到国家自然科学基金项目(71673310、71773038)和研究阐述党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项课题(18VSJ069)的资助。

Growth Target Choices: Ending Chinese Collapse Fallacy with High-Quality Development

Xu Xianxiang1, Li Shujuan1, Wang Xianbin2, Bi Qingmiao3   

  • Online:2018-10-10 Published:2018-11-07

摘要: 党的十二大至十八大一直强调经济增长速度,党的十九大将经济增长目标转向经济发展质量。基于此,本文尝试考察经济增长速度目标与发展质量目标的权衡。在理论上,本文证明当政府的政策工具是要素投入时,经济增长目标与经济发展质量负相关,经济增长目标侵蚀经济发展质量;当政策工具是技术进步时,二者正相关,可以同时提高。在经验分析上,本文采用2000-2012年的省区增长速度目标数据发现,经济增长目标每提高1个百分点,发展质量将下降约1个百分点。这些发现支持当政策工具是要素投入时增长目标"侵蚀"发展质量的理论预测,亦揭示了中央政府降低经济增长目标,地方政府将政策工具转向创新驱动发展,能够实现经济高质量和可持续发展,终结中国经济崩溃论。

关键词: 经济增长目标, 目标倒逼资源配置, 高质量发展

Abstract: Since the 12th National Congress, the Communist Party of China has been emphasizing the economic growth rate. However, it was not until the 19th CPC National Congress that this target shifted towards the high quality development. Based on this fact, we attempt to explore the mechanism behind the choice of growth target. Theoretically, we show that in an economy in which factor inputs drive economic growth, the growth rate is negatively related to the quality of economic development, whereas if technological progress drives economic growth, the growth rate and the quality of economic development are positively linked and can be improved simultaneously. Empirically, using data on the economic growth targets from the provincial level government reports from 2000 to 2012, we find that the elasticity of the economic growth target with respect to the quality of economic development is about -1. This empirical finding supports the theoretical prediction that growth targets "erode" the quality of development when policy instruments are factor inputs only. It also reveals that if the central government reduces the economic growth target and local governments transform their policy tools towards innovation-driven development strategy correspondingly, the Chinese economy is able to achieve high quality and sustainable development, thus putting an end to the economic collapse theory.

Key words: economic growth target, target-driven resource allocation, high quality development

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