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### 汇率变化如何影响中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构

1. 1. 复旦大学世界经济研究所 上海市杨浦区国权路600号 200433;
2. 复旦大学经济学院 上海市杨浦区国权路600号 200433
• 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
• 作者简介:沈国兵:电子信箱:guobingshen@fudan.edu.cn;黄铄珺:电子信箱:16110680022@fudan.edu.cn.
• 基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目（15AZD058）、教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目《行业生产网络下创新保护与中国企业外贸竞争力提升研究》和国家自然科学基金项目（71573171）的资助。

### How Do Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Technology Structure of China's Ordinary Trade Exports to the U.S.?

Shen Guobing1, Huang Shuojun2

• Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10

Abstract: By analyzing the data of China's ordinary trade exports to the US during 2003-2013, we adopt the Tobit model to explore the effect of real exchange rate changes on the technology structure of exports. The results show that: (1)Before 2007, processing trade exaggerated the technology level of China's manufacturing exports to the US; after 2007, the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US had a significant increase but still subject to a "statistical illusion". (2) The effect of real exchange rates on product shares varied among ordinary exports with different technology levels. The appreciation of real exchange rates of product enhanced the shares of China's HTM ordinary exports to the US, thus promoting the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US at the micro level. (3) At the macro level, the appreciation of the real RMB/USD exchange rate also promoted the technology structure of China's ordinary exports to the US. The increase of RMB volatility after the subprime crisis was harmful to the promotion of the technology structure of China's exports to the US. Thus, only with disaggregated product data can we reveal the authentic relationship between real exchange rate of products and the technology structure of exports. Backed by structural adjustment effect of real exchange rate appreciation of export product, China should strengthen technology innovation to extend the value chains of ordinary trade to sustain its economic growth.